Mikkel Rosenvold
11 weeks ago

Could Kennedy secure Trump's win?

How big a factor will RFK be come November?
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in front of a roll-up that reads "Kennedy 2024"
Ringo Chiu / Shutterstock.com

As Donald Trump has secured the Republican nomination, we take a closer look at polls for the general election in November.

We are now due for a re-match between Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden, but a third candidate is looming in the horizon. Robert F. Kennedy, nephew of former President John F. Kennedy and son to late attorney general and presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy, is building his renegade presidential campaign and that could have a huge impact on the race.

In a recent Bloomberg poll, Trump is ahead of Biden head-to-head in seven key battle ground states; Arizona (Trump up 6 points), Georgia (6 points), Michigan (2), Nevada (6), North Carolina (9), Wisconsin (4) and Pennsylvania (6).

That's already a healthy lead in some of the most decisive states, but the picture gets even more bleak when we factor in the candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy. In all seven battleground states except Michigan the presence of Kennedy on the ballot increases Trump's advantage by a further 2-3 points putting him 7-9 points ahead in most of these states.

This shows us that Kennedy simply pulls more votes from Biden than he pulls from Trump and this could be very decisive come November.


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