Mikkel Rosenvold
10 weeks ago

Biden takes narrow lead over Trump in latest poll

Biden takes slight lead - but will it hold? And what demographics could swing?
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Shutterstock

In a brand new Emerson poll, President Biden takes a narrow lead of 51-49 over former President Trump ahead of their general election show-down in November.

Biden, however, only takes the lead after factoring in undecided who may at most be leaning either way. Furthermore, a 51-49 lead may not be enough to win the Electoral College and the presidency if Trump manages to win key battleground states.

Strong demographics
Biden seems to be doing particularly strong in certain demographics. “Biden leads Trump among voters under 30, 43% to 37%, with 20% undecided. When these voters are forced to choose between Biden and Trump and their support is included in the total, 58% support Biden and 42% Trump,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

  • Haley primary voters break for Biden in the general election, 63% to 27%, with 10% undecided. In 2020 these voters broke for Biden 52% to 36%.

  • Independent voters break for Trump 42% to 39%, with 19% undecided. With the undecided push, Biden’s support increases to 52% and Trump to 48%. 

  • Those who did not vote in 2020 break for Trump 46% to 17%, with 36% undecided.

Historic election
The General Election takes place on November 6th and it's the first time since 1912 that a former President has been nominated for a new term after leaving office and the first time since 1956 that a general election match-up is repeated.

The emergence of Robert F. Kennedy as a significant third party candidate marks the first time since 1992 that a third party could play a major role in the election. If Kennedy is indeed on the ballot, the Emerson poll suggest that he might take more votes from Biden than from Trump, becoming a major factor in deciding who wins the Presidency.

Historic election
The General Election takes place on November 6th and it's the first time since 1912 that a former President has been nominated for a new term after leaving office and the first time since 1956 that a general election match-up is repeated.

The emergence of Robert F. Kennedy as a significant third party candidate marks the first time since 1992 that a third party could play a major role in the election. If Kennedy is indeed on the ballot, the Emerson poll suggest that he might take more votes from Biden than from Trump, becoming a major factor in deciding who wins the Presidency.

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