Mikkel Rosenvold
7 weeks ago

Andreas Steno's Analysis: Iranian Response to Israel Could Rock Markets

Macro Analyst Andreas Steno weighs in on Thursday's market events and the potential impact of the Iran-Israel tussle

"Iran striking within Israel would mark a significant escalation," Steno observes, highlighting the contrast with Tehran's usual tit-for-tat strategy. He anticipates a more measured response, likely outside of Israel proper, to convey a message of deterrence without inviting further conflict in a recent analysis posted on StenoResearch.com.

Steno also addresses recent market reactions, suggesting the sell-off might be somewhat overstated. He points to liquidity conditions and tax seasonality as factors contributing to market sensitivity, hinting at potential for corrections through April after two quarters of positive market performance.


The discussion shifts to energy markets, where Steno identifies a looming Q2 supply deficit. Despite rising demand signals suggesting OPEC+ should ramp up production, the consortium has opted to cut output, further tightening supply.

The commodity market's recent upswing catches Steno's attention, with a broadening rally beyond traditional strong performers like crude and gold. He views this trend as reflationary, especially for the U.S. consumer market in Q2, and reveals a strategic move into silver miners and the BCOM index as a response.

Steno also delves into the U.S. job market, specifically the wage growth aspect, predicting a potential surprise increase in wages based on leading indicators. He aligns this with Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari's stance on interest rate cuts contingent on inflation progress.

Lastly, Steno contrasts U.S. inflation trends with those in the Euro area, where a surprising downturn in inflation rates, particularly in Germany, suggests potential for a dovish shift in European Central Bank policy. He attributes this trend to seasonal variations and lower energy price impacts compared to the U.S., forecasting a possible easing in inflation pressures in Europe.

Through his analysis, Steno paints a picture of cautious optimism in the face of geopolitical tensions and market fluctuations, advising close monitoring of these developments for their broader economic implications.

Disclaimer

The information provided by this Site is for general informational purposes only. All information on the Site is provided in good faith, however we make no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, adequacy, validity, reliability, availability or completeness of any information on the Site.

More News

2 hours ago US Market Open: May 28, 2024 - Mixed Signals Amid Sector Divergence Daily update from the US market open.
2 hours ago The Western World’s Financial Leaders Met - Here are 7 Central Highlights Discover how the G7's latest meeting addressed global economic challenges, AI integration, and sustainable development.
7 hours ago Chocolate Trade Tiff: EU Fines Oreo and Toblerone Parent for Anticompetitive Practices EU slaps €337.5 million fine on Oreo and Toblerone maker for stifling trade.
7 hours ago Europe Market Open: May 28, 2024 - Mixed Performance Across European Markets Daily update from the European market open.
22 hours ago Dogecoin Dog Has Passed Away Farewell to Kabosu: The Shiba Inu behind the iconic ‘Doge’-meme and Dogecoin
23 hours ago Israeli Airstrike Hits Rafah Tent Camp Israeli airstrike on Rafah camp kills dozens, raising international alarm.
23 hours ago Meta and Call of Duty Maker Sued by Families of School Shooting Victims Families of the 2022 Uvalde school shooting victims file lawsuits against major corporations and officials, claiming they contributed to the tragedy.
1 day ago Walmart and Capital One Call It Quits on Partnership Walmart and Capital One announce the end of their six-year card partnership amidst legal disputes.
1 day ago US Market Open - May 27, 2024: Wall Street Wavers but Nasdaq Soars Daily update from the US market open.