Mikkel Rosenvold
2 weeks ago

Analyst: This US alliance could make a comeback!

Analyst Mikkel Rosenvold explains his outlook for the US-Saudi alliance that could make a comeback

In a recent edition of GE Portfolio, hosted by Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research, a detailed analysis was presented concerning the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Rosenvold, a noted political analyst, delivered a sobering assessment, suggesting significant strategic setbacks for Ukraine within the next 12 months.

The episode opened with Rosenvold referencing his controversial article, "Plan Accordingly: Ukraine Will Lose Within 12 Months," published earlier in the week. He emphasized that, despite the provocative headline, his analysis was grounded in current events and strategic evaluations.

Rosenvold then discussed the recent U.S. aid packages to Ukraine and Israel, noting that while these would provide a temporary boost to Ukrainian defenses, the long-term outlook remains challenging. He highlighted Ukraine's significant ammunition shortages and the intense pressure they face on various front lines, particularly near Avdiivka. Although U.S. aid could help alleviate these issues temporarily, Rosenvold pointed out that the production capabilities of Russia and its allies far exceed those of the West.

A critical area of concern that Rosenvold addressed was the battle for air superiority. He noted that while Ukraine has historically been effective in countering Russian air forces, recent shortages have hampered its ability to maintain control over its airspace.

Introducing his "Pendulum of Initiative" model, Rosenvold illustrated the shifting momentum of the conflict. According to this model, Russia is likely to maintain the strategic initiative, significantly influencing the outcomes of its planned offensive operations.

Looking ahead, Rosenvold predicts a major Russian offensive in the summer of 2024, particularly targeting northern sectors around the city of Kharkiv. The outcome of this offensive could be pivotal, potentially setting the stage for peace negotiations in Autumn 2024. He speculated that if Ukraine withstands the summer offensive, it could open a window for negotiations. However, he also warned of the potential for continued Russian aggression if negotiations do not lead to a settlement, drawing parallels with other rapid military escalations seen in recent history, such as the Taliban’s swift takeover in Afghanistan.

Rosenvold wrapped up the discussion by reflecting on the broader implications for the geopolitical landscape and investment strategies. He urged viewers to stay informed through his detailed analyses on Steno Research’s platform, highlighting the importance of understanding these dynamics for investors with interests in the region.

Overall, the episode painted a complex and evolving picture of the conflict in Ukraine, with significant implications for global politics and economics. Rosenvold's insights emphasized the importance of strategic foresight in navigating and preparing for potential outcomes in this volatile region.


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