Mikkel Rosenvold
11 weeks ago

Breaking: Red hot US jobs report - or is it?

The US non-farm payroll report just landed and it's red-hot. How will markets react?

Friday afternoon, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics issued the latest non-farm payroll report and it contained some eye-opening numbers.

The job gains index - a measure of private sector industries, who are expanding payrolls - rose to 62.6% - up from 57.4% one year ago. The overall gain of 275,000 jobs is way bigger than anticipated and markets have so far reacted positively.

Revisions and unemployment

However, major revisions to earlier estimates as well as rising unemployment numbers are a cause for concern. If you factor in the revisions for previous months, the job growth is worse than expected.

Concurrently, the hourly earnings grew less than expected, meaning a weaker pressure on inflation from wage growth than expected.

Market reaction

Markets reacted with stock futures heading higher and yields also spiked higher - most likely a reaction to the high headline number of jobs gained.

In the long term, the weakened pressure on inflation might prove positive for markets as well - and may also influence the Fed's decision on rate hikes or cuts throughout 2024.


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