Mikkel Rosenvold
11 weeks ago

Analyst: This is needed for a commodity rally

What critical conditions must align for a robust rally in commodity markets?
Picture of ship transporting containers from above.
GreenOak / Shutterstock

Macro Analyst Ulrik Simmelholt recently published an analysis on current conditions in the shipping industry and the links to the commodity sector.

Simmelholt argues that for a robust rally in commodity markets, several critical conditions must align, as recent market dynamics illustrate varied performances across futures, spot markets, and those influenced by cartels. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) has seen underperformance due to negative roll yields and prevailing short positions, lacking the protective influence of a cartel that commodities like crude oil benefit from under OPEC's stewardship.

Spot markets, however, have seen gains, buoyed by rising inflation expectations and nascent signs of global economic recovery. This is evidenced by the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB) rising 3% year-to-date, in stark contrast to BCOM's decline. The role of cartels, particularly OPEC, has proven pivotal in crude oil's performance, demonstrating the potential impact of strategic market interventions.

A pivotal factor for fueling a commodity rally is the economic rebound in China, Simmelholt argues. Current indicators such as weakening credit impulses and a high savings rate signal a lack of local economic confidence. However, the potential for Chinese stimulus measures and improved Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows may herald the beginning of a positive shift. For commodities to spark another wave of inflation, China's economic revitalization is crucial.

Investment strategies reflecting this analysis suggest a bullish stance on energy commodities, particularly as OPEC's actions have shown the effectiveness of cartel influence in stabilizing markets. Additionally, with shipping and logistics playing a critical role in commodity prices, seasonal adjustments and safety improvements in global shipping lanes could further drive commodity prices upwards.

Investors are advised to closely monitor Silver, Natural Gas, Copper, and Oil, anticipating these commodities to benefit from both seasonal shipping volume increases and a more secure shipping environment, laying the groundwork for a potential commodity market rally.

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