Mikkel Rosenvold
10 weeks ago

Analyst: These countries will do well if China is back

China is back - or so many analysts say. Which countries will benefit from this?
People crowd famous Wangfujing snack street during National Day holiday on Oct. 4, 2013 in Beijing, China.
testing / Shutterstock.com

Japanese equities have defied expectations by outperforming global benchmarks, with the Nikkei 225 surpassing the S&P 500 in recent returns. This resurgence has been buoyed by Japan's recovery efforts, sparking investor interest, analyst Elias Lisberg of Steno Research explains.

However, the narrative is broader than Japan's resurgence alone. The underperformance of Chinese markets, due to factors like geopolitical tensions and a hefty $9 trillion government debt, has redirected foreign direct investments towards Japan (and India), further boosting the Japanese market.

Yet, the tide may be turning. Signs of a Chinese economic revitalization are becoming hard to ignore. From pro-cyclical trends to rising industrial metal prices and improving foreign direct investments, China appears to be regaining its economic momentum.

This shift is causing a gradual rotation of investment from Japan to China, as the latter presents more attractive valuation prospects.

Despite the positive wage growth developments within Japanese companies, such as Toyota's record wage and bonus increases, there's a growing consensus that the "margin party" for large Japanese corporations may be nearing its end.

As wage pressures mount and the cost of capital increases, investors are eyeing China and South Korea for better opportunities, anticipating a broader economic recovery in China that could benefit the entire Asian region.

Moreover, with the potential of a major economic rebound in China, the demand for commodities and industrial goods is expected to rise, further supporting the economies of commodity-exporting countries and their currencies.

The anticipation of China's economic resurgence, coupled with the strategic movements of investors and the shifting dynamics of regional trade and investment, suggests a realignment of focus towards Chinese and other emerging Asian markets for growth opportunities.

Investors are now closely monitoring the developments in China, including upcoming diplomatic engagements and policy initiatives, to gauge the potential impact on global markets.

With the Asian financial landscape at a pivotal juncture, the evolving economic indicators and investment flows highlight the region's growing significance in the global market narrative.


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